Nobody Is Hunting You
Stop hunts, liquidity grabs, smart money running your level. Every version of the story assumes the market noticed you. It didn't, and dropping the narrative is where useful analysis begins.
The Tightening the Fed Did Not Do
Warsh held the funds rate on July 29, but treated the bond market's own tightening as doing part of the work a hike normally would. Here's where that pressure actually lands, and why the AI capital cycle is unusually exposed to it.
Aggression Is Not Control
Gold and Silver took the same pressure at the same moment and gave two different answers. A study of why aggression and control are not the same thing.
Who Decides Where Scarcity Returns
When engineering stops supplying a bottleneck, policy can attempt to rebuild one. The constraint moves from production to permission.
When an Industry Changes the Subject
An industry tells you what it believes is scarce by what it argues about. NVIDIA's open-weights letter is the case study.
Who Makes the Price
What a futures market is actually for, who shows up to build it, and how to read the crowd without pretending to read its mind.
Positioning in Context P3
When positioning should be ignored. Why a framework's greatest value is knowing when it has nothing to say.
Positioning in Context P2
When a justified trend becomes structurally fragile. How positioning reads crowding that is not misguided, but increasingly vulnerable.
Positioning in Context P1
What the metals did after January stopped explaining them. When a positioning extreme becomes the signal after the catalyst is priced.
Everyone Is Watching the Wrong Screen
The Q3 2026 Quarterly Briefing. Two prices resolve the board this quarter. Everything else is commentary.
I Didn't Want to Build This
For a long time, I wanted nothing to do with social media. Here's the dichotomy: it's also where I found trading.