Don't Take the Market for a Liar
Always be aware of which decisions have already been made and what the likely next step is. What MGI reference is the market headed toward, and where did it come from? Intraday trading is a decision-sequencing exercise. Not a level-hunting one.
The Reference Levels That Matter
The intraday framework operates through a set of price levels, each representing a decision the market has already made or has yet to make. Each acceptance or rejection of one of these levels closes one set of scenarios and opens another, which is how the session's probability distribution narrows throughout the day. There is no need to overcomplicate the individual definitions. What follows is the master list of the major MGIs across timeframes, each stated plainly.
- Prior Day High / Low (RTH)The extremes of the most recently completed Regular Trading Hours session, and the most consistently reactive references intraday.
- Globex Prior Day High / LowThe extremes of the most recently completed overnight session, distinct from the RTH range.
- Prior Week High / LowThe outer limits of the last completed weekly auction; elevated weight when aligned with intraday activity.
- Overnight High / LowThe outer limits of the current Globex session; RTH interaction here is often the session's first decision.
- Globex POC / VAH / VALThe overnight point of control and value-area edges: where the overnight session did the bulk of its business.
- RTH OpenThe first regular-session price; sustained acceptance above or below it commits a directional lean.
- 30-Min Opening Range + ExtensionsThe first 30 minutes define the range; acceptance beyond it declares directional intent, and the extensions are the next references once it breaks.
- Initial Balance + ExtensionsThe first hour's range; holding inside it says something different than extending through it early, and the extensions are the next references on a break.
- Settlements and Opens (daily, weekly, monthly)Where prior timeframes locked in their inventory, and where current timeframes began; both anchor participant decisions for the duration of their period.
A Word on Midpoints
Midpoints are a strange category. In theory they hold value because they represent the equilibrium of a measured trading range, the exact middle of a given high-to-low. There is no deep structural reason they should produce reactions, and yet, for whatever reason, algorithms tend to react around them with surprising consistency. Because of that, and because it has held up across enough historical observation to take seriously, the midpoints of the daily, weekly, monthly, opening, and initial-balance ranges have all earned a place on my chart. I do not trade them as signals on their own. I watch how activity develops around them, and treat that behavior as one more piece of evidence about which half of a range's negotiation the market currently favors.
Tracking the Decision Chain
Intraday sessions are not prediction exercises. They are decision-tracking exercises. Each acceptance or rejection at a key level produces information that constrains what is likely to happen next.
Price pushes into the prior day high and gets rejected cleanly. Known: participants are not accepting trade above the prior day's range at this time.
Price falls back through the overnight high and the RTH open without holding either. Known: both overhead references have ceded, and structural pressure has shifted lower.
Price reaches the opening range low, finds a bid, and holds. Known: the downside probe found participants, so lower prices are not being accepted either.
Price reclaims the opening range low with volume and stays above it. Known: that level has shifted function from resistance to support.
Price works back up through the RTH open, the overnight high, and then the prior day high, accepting above it. Known: directional intent is now confirmed through a sequence of settled decisions, not a guess.
At each step, the prior decision is settled. The only open question is what happens next given what has been demonstrated. By midday you are not working with the same uncertainty you had at the open.
Failure to Sustain Is a Decision
A market that probes above a reference level and immediately returns below it is communicating the same information as a market that rejects sharply at that level. Both indicate that participants were unwilling to accept trade at those prices. The absence of a dramatic reversal candle does not make the rejection less real. Treat failure to sustain as the signal it is.
Levels Change Function When Accepted
Once price transacts above a previously significant level with volume over a sustained duration, that level changes its structural role. Prior resistance accepted above becomes the floor of the new range. Prior support accepted below becomes the ceiling. Tracking which levels have changed function is essential to understanding where the market currently is, not just where it has been.