A top-down position trading system. Six chapters covering the full process from identifying when institutional participants are accumulating, through mapping the macro regime, selecting the highest-probability equities, and managing positions to their full maturity.
This is not a system for generating frequent returns. It is for identifying rare, high-conviction opportunities and holding them through their full expansion. Read sequentially first. Return to chapters as reference points throughout a trade's life.
The difference between investing and exploiting a mispricing, why the edge lives in the gap between expectation and reality, where asymmetry tends to concentrate, and why this approach is concentrated by necessity rather than preference.
Chapter 02The broad market as the first filter. The one, three, and five-year moving average framework, what the COT report reveals about commercial and speculative participants, and reading index volume profiles to map the structural path.
Chapter 03Why markets price expectations rather than conditions, reading the economic landscape, identifying durable themes and their consequences, and tracing first, second, and third order effects before the broader market does.
Chapter 04Why timing the scan against a weak market is what makes relative strength meaningful, the momentum and volatility compression filters, sector sifting through the narrative, and hand-selecting charts that show genuine accumulation.
Chapter 05Understanding the business model before the metrics. Why a software company, a miner, a restaurant, and a bank require completely different lenses, and the three-part assessment of sector truths, peer comparison, and catalyst.
Chapter 06Writing the thesis, defining invalidation through structure rather than loss tolerance, setting targets from the compression, managing by progress instead of price, and the concentration and sizing logic that ties it together.
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